Know Your Score. Secure Your Success.
Stop relying on gut feeling. Phoebe is a predictive intelligence engine that forecasts game ratings and commercial performance months before launch — allowing you to pivot your strategy when it actually matters.
Early access members receive a 2,000 $PHOB launch voucher.
Four steps from scattered intuition to converged forecast.
Follow & Deliberate
Users follow trusted analysts across social circles, surface their analyses, and discuss arguments in structured threads.
Predict with Certainty
Forecasters submit probabilistic multi-guess predictions — never a Yes/No. Every claim is paired with a certainty score.
AI Weighted Aggregation
Phoebe's dynamic algorithm weights each input by historical accuracy, deliberation quality, and certainty calibration.
Studio Dashboard
Aggregated forecasts, drill-down arguments, and confidence intervals — accessible in your team's Studio in real time.
Why Phoebe beats prediction markets, by design.
Polymarket asks the crowd binary questions. Phoebe asks how sure they are, and weights every voice by earned merit.
We don't ask "Yes or No." We ask "How sure are you?"
Drag the slider. Every prediction is graded on conviction, not just direction — turning binary noise into calibrated signal.
Not all voices are equal. Superforecasters compound.
Phoebe's AI weights predictions by your historical accuracy and the quality of your deliberation — so signal compounds, noise decays.
Blind circles eliminate the bandwagon effect.
Forecasts cluster in semi-blind circles before peer exposure — Bahrami's neuroscience prevents groupthink from poisoning the signal.
We used Phoebe for one of our titles. The process was very easy and low friction on our side, as we did not have to produce any specific asset. Phoebe’s prediction was spot on — 1% error margin after 120 press reviews. This was way more accurate than the mock-up reviews we did with our traditional vendors.
Every forecast is an audit trail of arguments.
Pick a prediction. Drag, zoom, click any node to drill down to the atomic argument and its sources. The arc around each argument shows its weight in Phoebe's aggregation.
Four disciplines. One forecasting engine.
The Neuro-Edge: cognitive AI architecture.
Phoebe is a human-in-the-loop design built on peer-reviewed cognitive science. Structured deliberation neutralises the bandwagon effect; merit-weighted aggregation compounds the signal of small, expert debates over noisy crowds.
Aggregated knowledge from a small number of debates outperforms the wisdom of large crowds.
Navajas J, Niella T, Garbulsky G, Bahrami B, Sigman M. Aggregated knowledge from a small number of debates outperforms the wisdom of large crowds. Nat Hum Behav 2, 126–132 (2018).
Democratic forecast: Small groups predict the future better than individuals and crowds.
Dezecache, G., Dockendorff, M., Ferreiro, D. N., Deroy, O., & Bahrami, B. (2022). Democratic forecast: Small groups predict the future better than individuals and crowds. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Applied, 28(3), 525–537.